在结束两天的会议后,北京时间今天凌晨,美联储宣布加息25个基点。
这是2018年以来美国首次加息。
从新闻稿看,联储认为价格压力是普遍的,不只是能源价格,还有劳动力等,目前的失业率已明显下降(2月份美国CPI通胀率为7.9%,40年来最高;失业率为3.8%,已接近疫前水平)。
联储准备从下次会议开始,减少国债和机构债MBS的持有量。
投票委员中,圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard投票加息50个基点。
据FT报道,在会后的记者会上,联储主席鲍威尔谈到加息是为了应对高通胀和紧张的劳动力市场 extremely tight labor market in high inflation.
点阵图(dot plot,投票委员对利率区间的预测)显示,联储官员比三个月前调高了利率预测,预计2022年剩下的时间还将加息6次,2023年加息至少3次。联邦基金利率届时将达到2.8%,高于影响经济增长的“中性位置”(多数官员预测的中性利率为2.4%)。
美国银行:认为美联储可能缩窄加息幅度至50个基点:8月29日消息,美国银行经济学家在一份有关美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话的报告中称,8月份美国劳动力市场可能依然紧张,但预计美联储下个月将把加息步伐放缓至50个基点,美联储倾向于在可能的情况下小幅加息。预计美联储将在12月前将终端利率降至3.50-3.75%,且预计美国经济会硬着陆。经济学家还表示,美联储的紧缩周期往往以经济衰退告终,不过以历史标准衡量,衰退的程度不一定很深。(金十)[2022/8/30 12:56:23]
美国CPI(1965-2022)
美联储理事夸尔斯:希望监管机构对加密货币进行合理约束:12月3日消息,美联储理事夸尔斯称,希望监管机构对加密货币进行合理约束。(金十)[2021/12/3 12:47:12]
美国劳动参与率(1948-2022)
联储新闻稿如下:
March 16, 2022
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.
美联储主席:央行数字货币可能会排除对稳定币和加密货币的需求:美联储主席鲍威尔表示,央行数字货币可能会排除对稳定币和加密货币的需求,这是支持它的有力论据。(金十)[2021/7/15 0:52:56]
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.
美联储在固定利率逆回购中接纳了4861亿美元:美联储在固定利率逆回购中接纳了4861亿美元,创历史新高。 (金十)[2021/6/8 23:19:31]
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.
观点:美联储及银行低利率或能推动稳定币的采用:4月15日,Cointelegraph发文讨论美国的零利率对稳定币采用的作用称,对于一些稳定币用户(与法币挂钩)来说,其最大的收入来源之一是存储利息。而美联储及各银行下调储蓄账户利率导致用户收入减少。目前的低利率环境可能会使用户资产处于亏损状态。但从更长远来看,稳定币概念已经成为加密领域的重要组成部分,稳定币的重要性将逐步扩大。当经历严峻的市场环境时,稳定币将提供安全保障;而当市场恢复,再次变得更具竞争力时,交易者和投资者将会重新评估稳定币这一投资选项。此前4月9日消息,美联储发布会议纪要称,零利率将保持至经济消化疫情的打击之后。[2020/4/15]
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.
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